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Chub Lake, Lublin, WI · Muskellunge · 2026-11-13

Estimated species — not a state survey

The state hasn't reported Muskellunge in Chub Lake. This forecast uses the same bite model, but Muskellunge here is an ESTIMATE inferred from nearby lakes with confirmed surveys (based on 8 lakes within 40 mi, 30% confidence), not a confirmed catch record.

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Chub Lake — Muskellunge

  1. FriNov 13Fair · 40
  2. SatNov 14Poor · 39
  3. SunNov 15Poor · 34
  4. MonNov 16Poor · 23Estimate
  5. TueNov 17Poor · 23Estimate
  6. WedNov 18Poor · 21Estimate
  7. ThuNov 19Poor · 21Estimate

Overall rating

Muskellunge at Chub Lake — 2026-11-13

Fair · 40/100

Best window: 3 PM (Fair · 54/100)

Season
Fall
Moon
16% illuminated, waxingWaxing Crescent
Est. surface temp
39.3°F
Pressure
30.11 inHgStable

Est. water temp

39.3°F

v1 estimate from air temperature — not a sensor reading

Below Muskellunge's 75-80°F range

Air vs. last week

1°F warmer

30°F now vs 29°F this time last week

Measured air temperature at the nearest weather station — not water

Sun & moon

Sunrise
6:58 AM
Sunset
4:35 PM
Moonrise
11:18 AM
Moonset
7:35 PM
Sky, wind & pressureat best window · 3 PM
Cloud cover
81%
Precip chance
10%
Wind
7 mph N
Pressure
30.11 inHg Stable

Species context

Why this score

Fair (40/100) for Muskellunge: water is estimated at 39.3°F, below Muskellunge's 75-80°F optimal range. Best window: Dusk — boosts feeding activity by about 31%, one of their peak feeding windows. That hour also overlaps a major solunar period. 30.11 inHg and stable pressure modeled flat — no change from this fish's baseline. Light (5-10 mph) wind modeled about 10% below this fish's baseline.

What's driving the 3 PM score

Light window (dusk) is doing the most for this score. The score gives up the most on water temperature — 39.3°F estimated, about 45 points below its best.

  • Water temperature · hurting
  • Light window · helping
  • Solunar period · helping
  • Barometric pressure · helping
  • Wind · helping
Show the numbers behind this

  1. Water temperature: 39.3°F estimated

    0 of 45 pts

    Optimal range 75-80°F

    Well supportedWater temperature governs a cold-blooded fish's metabolism, so it is the largest term in the model (Christie & Regier 1988). The figure is a thermal-lag estimate built from forecast air temperature and the time of year — not a sensor reading, and not this lake's actual measured water.

  2. Light window: Dusk

    30 of 30 pts

    Boosts feeding activity by about 31%

    Well supportedLow-light feeding windows are the strongest timing signal inside a single day. How much each window is worth is this species' own cited response, sourced in its model file, not a generic curve.

  3. Solunar period: Major period

    5 of 5 pts

    Not supported by testingPeer-reviewed testing of North American freshwater fisheries found no significant relationship between solunar values, lunar phase or lunar illumination and catch rates (SN Applied Sciences, 2023) — air temperature predicted catch better than any solunar table tested. It is shown because anglers expect it, and it is shown separately so you can discount it. We reviewed this evidence and cut its weight accordingly.

  4. Barometric pressure: Stable

    10 of 10 pts

    Modeled flat — no change from this fish's baseline

    ContestedThe barometric effect is real to most anglers but small and contested in the literature — several of the species studies cited in this model report null results — so it carries one of the smallest weights here.

  5. Wind: Light (5-10 mph)

    9 of 10 pts

    Modeled about 10% below this fish's baseline

    Moderately supportedWind stacks forage on windward structure, but both the size and the direction of the effect depend on the species and the water, so it carries a modest weight.

Then the whole score is scaled

Season: Fall — ×1.00 (100% of the ungated score)

How catchable Muskellunge are at this point in the year. This scales the whole score rather than competing with the factors above — a fish that is dormant this time of year cannot score well no matter how good the hour looks.

Weather front: No clear front — ×1.00 (100% of the ungated score)

A multi-hour frontal pattern read from the day's forecast trajectory. No front is classified today, so this changes nothing and the single-reading pressure factor above does its normal job.

Those 5 factors add up to 54 of 100 points, and the two multipliers above take that to 54. The weights are tuning constants — solunar's was cut after peer-reviewed testing found no predictive effect, and the others are adjusted as we validate them — shown here rather than hidden so you can weigh them against your own judgement.

What this score does not know

  • Water clarity. We have no source for it and do not estimate it.
  • Measured water temperature. The figure in the breakdown is a model over forecast air temperature, not a reading from a buoy or a probe.
  • Baitfish and forage activity.
  • How much fishing pressure this water has had.
  • Where the fish actually are. Depth bands are the species' published seasonal ranges, not an observation of this lake.
  • What anyone actually caught. No catch reports feed this score.

Conditions read from the National Weather Service as of Nov 13, 2026 at 4:52 AM CST. Solunar periods and sun/moon times are computed, not fetched.

When best caught

It's currently fall. Muskellunge typically hold 8-25 ft deep this time of year — at an estimated 39.3°F, this looks like a slower time of year to target them, since water temp is outside their optimal range.

Current depth

8-25 ft

This is the seasonal depth band from the species model, based on this species' typical behavior, not this lake's actual structure.

Today's solunar periods

  • Major: 2:00 AM–4:00 AM
  • Minor: 10:48 AM–11:48 AM
  • Major: 2:25 PM–4:25 PM
  • Minor: 7:05 PM–8:05 PM

Best times

When do muskellunge feed during the day?

Muskellunge feed most actively at Dusk, when activity runs about 50% above the daily average across all four light windows.

  • Dawn0.75x

    Suppresses feeding activity by about 25%.

  • Daytime0.94x

    Suppresses feeding activity by about 6%.

  • Dusk1.31x

    Boosts feeding activity by about 31%.

  • Night0.50x

    Suppresses feeding activity by about 50%.

Hour by hour

Hourly bite forecast

HourBite scoreRatingLightWind
4 AM
35
PoorNight6 mph N
5 AM
32
PoorNight5 mph N
6 AM
32
PoorNight5 mph N
7 AM
38
PoorDawn5 mph N
8 AM
42
FairDay6 mph N
9 AM
42
FairDay7 mph N
10 AM
44
FairDay8 mph N
11 AM
52
FairDusk8 mph N
12 PM
42
FairDay7 mph N
1 PM
42
FairDay7 mph N
2 PM
46
FairDay8 mph N
3 PM
54
FairDusk7 mph N
4 PM
54
FairDusk7 mph N
5 PM
51
FairDusk6 mph N
6 PM
32
PoorNight5 mph N
7 PM
34
PoorNight3 mph N
8 PM
34
PoorNight3 mph N
9 PM
33
PoorNight2 mph N
10 PM
33
PoorNight2 mph N
11 PM
33
PoorNight2 mph N

Pick a lake and species to see a color-coded bite calendar: real hourly scores inside the ~48h forecast horizon, honest day-level estimates out to ~7 days, and clearly marked unavailable days beyond that.

Location

Chub Lake · 45.1750, -90.6369

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