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Paulin Pond, Paddock Lake, WI · Pumpkinseed · 2026-11-13

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Paulin Pond — Pumpkinseed

Overall rating

Pumpkinseed at Paulin Pond — 2026-11-13

Poor · 26/100

Best window: 10 PM (Poor · 26/100)

Season: Fall
Moon: 16% illuminated, waxingWaxing Crescent
Est. surface temp: 39.6°F
Pressure: 30.13 inHgRising

Est. water temp

39.6°F

v1 estimate from air temperature — not a sensor reading

Below Pumpkinseed's 75-89°F range

Air vs. last week

3°F cooler

33°F now vs 36°F this time last week

Measured air temperature at the nearest weather station — not water

Sun & moon

Sunrise: 6:41 AM
Sunset: 4:31 PM
Moonrise: 10:56 AM
Moonset: 7:36 PM

Sky, wind & pressureat best window · 10 PM

Cloud cover: 6%
Precip chance: 6%
Wind: 5 mph N
Pressure: 30.13 inHg Rising

Species context

Why this score

Poor (26/100) for Pumpkinseed: water is estimated at 39.6°F, below Pumpkinseed's 75-89°F optimal range. Best window: Night — suppresses feeding activity by about 40%. That hour falls outside any solunar period. 30.13 inHg and rising pressure modeled about 5% below this fish's baseline. Light (5-10 mph) wind modeled about 15% above this fish's baseline.

What's driving the 10 PM score

Light window (night) is doing the most for this score, even at about 16.2 points below its best. The score gives up the most on water temperature — 39.6°F estimated, about 45 points below its best. The whole day is then scaled to 75% for post-cold-front high.

Water temperature · hurting
Light window · neutral
Solunar period · hurting
Barometric pressure · helping
Wind · helping

Show the numbers behind this

Water temperature: 39.6°F estimated
0 of 45 pts
Optimal range 75-89°F
Well supportedWater temperature governs a cold-blooded fish's metabolism, so it is the largest term in the model (Christie & Regier 1988). The figure is a thermal-lag estimate built from forecast air temperature and the time of year — not a sensor reading, and not this lake's actual measured water.
Light window: Night
13.8 of 30 pts
Suppresses feeding activity by about 40%
Well supportedLow-light feeding windows are the strongest timing signal inside a single day. How much each window is worth is this species' own cited response, sourced in its model file, not a generic curve.
Solunar period: Outside any period
1.5 of 5 pts
Not supported by testingPeer-reviewed testing of North American freshwater fisheries found no significant relationship between solunar values, lunar phase or lunar illumination and catch rates (SN Applied Sciences, 2023) — air temperature predicted catch better than any solunar table tested. It is shown because anglers expect it, and it is shown separately so you can discount it. We reviewed this evidence and cut its weight accordingly.
Barometric pressure: Stable (held neutral by the front)
9.5 of 10 pts
Modeled flat — no change from this fish's baseline
ContestedThe barometric effect is real to most anglers but small and contested in the literature — several of the species studies cited in this model report null results — so it carries one of the smallest weights here.
Wind: Light (5-10 mph)
10 of 10 pts
Modeled about 15% above this fish's baseline
Moderately supportedWind stacks forage on windward structure, but both the size and the direction of the effect depend on the species and the water, so it carries a modest weight.

Then the whole score is scaled

Season: Fall — ×1.00 (100% of the ungated score)

How catchable Pumpkinseed are at this point in the year. This scales the whole score rather than competing with the factors above — a fish that is dormant this time of year cannot score well no matter how good the hour looks.

Weather front: Post-cold-front high — ×0.75 (75% of the ungated score)

A multi-hour frontal pattern read from the day's forecast trajectory. Because a front IS a barometric event, it replaces the single-reading pressure factor above, which is held neutral — the barometer is never counted twice.

Those 5 factors add up to 34.9 of 100 points, and the two multipliers above take that to 26. The weights are tuning constants — solunar's was cut after peer-reviewed testing found no predictive effect, and the others are adjusted as we validate them — shown here rather than hidden so you can weigh them against your own judgement.

What this score does not know

Water clarity. We have no source for it and do not estimate it.
Measured water temperature. The figure in the breakdown is a model over forecast air temperature, not a reading from a buoy or a probe.
Baitfish and forage activity.
How much fishing pressure this water has had.
Where the fish actually are. Depth bands are the species' published seasonal ranges, not an observation of this lake.
What anyone actually caught. No catch reports feed this score.

Conditions read from the National Weather Service as of Nov 13, 2026 at 10:11 PM CST. Solunar periods and sun/moon times are computed, not fetched.

When best caught

It's currently fall. Pumpkinseed typically hold 3-10 ft deep this time of year — at an estimated 39.6°F, this looks like a slower time of year to target them, since water temp is outside their optimal range.

Current depth

3-10 ft

This is the seasonal depth band from the species model, based on this species' typical behavior, not this lake's actual structure.

Today's solunar periods

Major: 1:49 AM–3:49 AM
Minor: 10:26 AM–11:26 AM
Major: 2:15 PM–4:15 PM
Minor: 7:06 PM–8:06 PM

Best times

When do pumpkinseed feed during the day?

Pumpkinseed feed most actively at Daytime, when activity runs about 33% above the daily average across all four light windows.

Dawn1.00x
Has no measurable effect on feeding activity.
Daytime1.30x
Boosts feeding activity by about 30%.
Dusk1.00x
Has no measurable effect on feeding activity.
Night0.60x
Suppresses feeding activity by about 40%.

Hour by hour

Hourly bite forecast

Hour	Bite score	Rating	Light	Wind
10 PM	26	Poor	Night	5 mph N
11 PM	26	Poor	Night	5 mph N

Pick a lake and species to see a color-coded bite calendar: real hourly scores inside the ~48h forecast horizon, honest day-level estimates out to ~7 days, and clearly marked unavailable days beyond that.

Location

Paulin Pond · 42.6185, -88.1247