Bite forecast
Today's Bite Forecast
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Overall rating
Smallmouth Bass at Lake Fairlee — 2026-10-05
Fair · 47/100Best window: 6 PM (Fair · 54/100)
- Season
- Fall
- Moon
- 26% illuminated, waningWaning Crescent
- Est. surface temp
- 58.1°F
- Pressure
- 29.81 inHgFalling
Est. water temp
58.1°F
v1 estimate from air temperature — not a sensor reading
Below Smallmouth Bass's 70-80°F range
Air vs. last week
4°F warmer
61°F now vs 57°F this time last week
Measured air temperature at the nearest weather station — not water
Sun & moon
- Sunrise
- 6:51 AM
- Sunset
- 6:22 PM
- Moonrise
- 12:50 AM
- Moonset
- 4:06 PM
Sky, wind & pressureat best window · 6 PM
- Cloud cover
- 19%
- Precip chance
- 15%
- Wind
- 12 mph NW
- Pressure
- 29.81 inHg Falling
Species context
Why this score
Fair (47/100) for Smallmouth Bass: water is estimated at 58.1°F, below Smallmouth Bass's 70-80°F optimal range. Best window: Dusk — boosts feeding activity by about 30%, one of their peak feeding windows. That hour falls outside any solunar period. 29.81 inHg and falling pressure modeled about 5% above this fish's baseline. Moderate (10-20 mph) wind modeled about 10% above this fish's baseline.
What's driving the 6 PM score
Light window (dusk) is doing the most for this score. The score gives up the most on water temperature — 58.1°F estimated, about 35.7 points below its best. The whole day is then scaled to 90% for cold front passing through.
- Water temperature · hurting
- Light window · helping
- Solunar period · hurting
- Barometric pressure · helping
- Wind · helping
Show the numbers behind this
Water temperature: 58.1°F estimated
9.3 of 45 pts
Optimal range 70-80°F
Well supportedWater temperature governs a cold-blooded fish's metabolism, so it is the largest term in the model (Christie & Regier 1988). The figure is a thermal-lag estimate built from forecast air temperature and the time of year — not a sensor reading, and not this lake's actual measured water.
Light window: Dusk
30 of 30 pts
Boosts feeding activity by about 30%
Well supportedLow-light feeding windows are the strongest timing signal inside a single day. How much each window is worth is this species' own cited response, sourced in its model file, not a generic curve.
Solunar period: Outside any period
1.5 of 5 pts
Not supported by testingPeer-reviewed testing of North American freshwater fisheries found no significant relationship between solunar values, lunar phase or lunar illumination and catch rates (SN Applied Sciences, 2023) — air temperature predicted catch better than any solunar table tested. It is shown because anglers expect it, and it is shown separately so you can discount it. The owner reviewed this evidence and demoted its weight accordingly.
Barometric pressure: Stable (held neutral by the front)
9.5 of 10 pts
Modeled flat — no change from this fish's baseline
ContestedThe barometric effect is real to most anglers but small and contested in the literature — several of the species studies cited in this model report null results — so it carries one of the smallest weights here.
Wind: Moderate (10-20 mph)
9.6 of 10 pts
Modeled about 10% above this fish's baseline
Moderately supportedWind stacks forage on windward structure, but both the size and the direction of the effect depend on the species and the water, so it carries a modest weight.
Then the whole score is scaled
Season: Fall — ×1.00 (100% of the ungated score)
How catchable Smallmouth Bass are at this point in the year. This scales the whole score rather than competing with the factors above — a fish that is dormant this time of year cannot score well no matter how good the hour looks.
Weather front: Cold front passing through — ×0.90 (90% of the ungated score)
A multi-hour frontal pattern read from the day's forecast trajectory. Because a front IS a barometric event, it replaces the single-reading pressure factor above, which is held neutral — the barometer is never counted twice.
Those five factors add up to 59.9 of 100 points, and the two multipliers above take that to 54. The weights are tuning constants — solunar's was demoted after peer-reviewed testing found no predictive effect (#456), and the rest remain under owner review — shown here rather than hidden so you can weigh them against your own judgement.
What this score does not know
- Water clarity. We have no source for it and do not estimate it.
- Measured water temperature. The figure in the breakdown is a model over forecast air temperature, not a reading from a buoy or a probe.
- Baitfish and forage activity.
- How much fishing pressure this water has had.
- Where the fish actually are. Depth bands are the species' published seasonal ranges, not an observation of this lake.
- What anyone actually caught. No catch reports feed this score.
Conditions read from the National Weather Service as of Oct 5, 2026 at 2:47 PM EDT. Solunar periods and sun/moon times are computed, not fetched.
When best caught
It's currently fall. Smallmouth Bass typically hold 20-40 ft deep this time of year — at an estimated 58.1°F, this looks like a slower time of year to target them, since water temp is outside their optimal range.
Current depth
20-40 ft
This is the seasonal depth band from the species model — relative to this species' typical behavior, not this lake's actual structure. True depth relative to this lake's bottom contours needs lake bathymetry (tracked in issue #175).
Today's solunar periods
- Minor: 12:20 AM–1:20 AM
- Major: 7:35 AM–9:35 AM
- Minor: 3:36 PM–4:36 PM
- Major: 8:02 PM–10:02 PM
Best times
When do smallmouth bass feed during the day?
Smallmouth Bass feed most actively at Dawn and Dusk, when activity runs about 21% above the daily average across all four light windows.
- Dawn1.30x
Boosts feeding activity by about 30%.
- Daytime0.70x
Suppresses feeding activity by about 30%.
- Dusk1.30x
Boosts feeding activity by about 30%.
- Night1.00x
Has no measurable effect on feeding activity.
Hour by hour
Hourly bite forecast
| Hour | Bite score | Rating | Light | Wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 PM | 41 | Fair | Day | 15 mph W |
| 2 PM | 41 | Fair | Day | 15 mph W |
| 3 PM | 43 | Fair | Day | 14 mph W |
| 4 PM | 43 | Fair | Day | 13 mph NW |
| 5 PM | 41 | Fair | Day | 14 mph NW |
| 6 PM | 54 | Fair | Dusk | 12 mph NW |
| 7 PM | 54 | Fair | Dusk | 9 mph NW |
| 8 PM | 51 | Fair | Night | 6 mph NW |
| 9 PM | 51 | Fair | Night | 5 mph N |
| 10 PM | 51 | Fair | Night | 5 mph N |
| 11 PM | 48 | Fair | Night | 5 mph NW |
Location
Lake Fairlee · 43.8881, -72.2265
Map data © OpenFreeMap, OpenMapTiles, OpenStreetMap contributors