Today's Bite Forecast

Optimal range 72-77°F

Well supportedWater temperature governs a cold-blooded fish's metabolism, so it is the largest term in the model (Christie & Regier 1988). The figure is a thermal-lag estimate built from forecast air temperature and the time of year — not a sensor reading, and not this lake's actual measured water.

Boosts feeding activity by about 20%

Well supportedLow-light feeding windows are the strongest timing signal inside a single day. How much each window is worth is this species' own cited response, sourced in its model file, not a generic curve.

Not supported by testingPeer-reviewed testing of North American freshwater fisheries found no significant relationship between solunar values, lunar phase or lunar illumination and catch rates (SN Applied Sciences, 2023) — air temperature predicted catch better than any solunar table tested. It is shown because anglers expect it, and it is shown separately so you can discount it. The owner reviewed this evidence and demoted its weight accordingly.

Modeled about 4% below this fish's baseline

ContestedThe barometric effect is real to most anglers but small and contested in the literature — several of the species studies cited in this model report null results — so it carries one of the smallest weights here.

Modeled about 15% below this fish's baseline

Moderately supportedWind stacks forage on windward structure, but both the size and the direction of the effect depend on the species and the water, so it carries a modest weight.