Fishing report
Keith Sebelius Lake Largemouth Bass Fishing Report
Norton, KS
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Modeled from live National Weather Service data as of Oct 2, 2026 at 6:10 PM CDT, plus solunar and sun/moon times computed in-house. This is a computed report, not an eyewitness catch report.
A state fisheries survey records Largemouth Bass in Keith Sebelius Lake.
Overall rating
Largemouth Bass at Keith Sebelius Lake — 2026-10-02
Good · 77/100Best window: 7 PM (Excellent · 84/100)
Some conditions data (cloud cover or barometric pressure) was unavailable from the weather service for this day — the rating above reflects only what was available.
- Season
- Fall
- Moon
- 57% illuminated, waningLast Quarter
- Est. surface temp
- 65.1°F
- Pressure
- —Unknown
Est. water temp
65.1°F
v1 estimate from air temperature — not a sensor reading
Below Largemouth Bass's 70-85°F range
Air vs. last week
3°F warmer
70°F now vs 67°F this time last week
Measured air temperature at the nearest weather station — not water
Sun & moon
- Sunrise
- 7:37 AM
- Sunset
- 7:20 PM
- Moonrise
- 11:33 PM
- Moonset
- 2:36 PM
Sky, wind & pressureat best window · 7 PM
- Cloud cover
- 0%
- Precip chance
- 0%
- Wind
- 10 mph SE
- Pressure
- — Unknown
Species context
Why this score
Good (77/100) for Largemouth Bass: water is estimated at 65.1°F, below Largemouth Bass's 70-85°F optimal range. Best window: Dusk — boosts feeding activity by about 30%, one of their peak feeding windows. That hour also overlaps a major solunar period. Stable pressure modeled flat — no change from this fish's baseline. Moderate (10-20 mph) wind modeled about 10% above this fish's baseline.
What's driving the 7 PM score
Water temperature (65.1°F estimated) is doing the most for this score. The score gives up the most on water temperature — 65.1°F estimated, about 14.7 points below its best.
- Water temperature · neutral
- Light window · helping
- Solunar period · helping
- Barometric pressure · helping
- Wind · helping
Show the numbers behind this
Water temperature: 65.1°F estimated
30.3 of 45 pts
Optimal range 70-85°F
Well supportedWater temperature governs a cold-blooded fish's metabolism, so it is the largest term in the model (Christie & Regier 1988). The figure is a thermal-lag estimate built from forecast air temperature and the time of year — not a sensor reading, and not this lake's actual measured water.
Light window: Dusk
30 of 30 pts
Boosts feeding activity by about 30%
Well supportedLow-light feeding windows are the strongest timing signal inside a single day. How much each window is worth is this species' own cited response, sourced in its model file, not a generic curve.
Solunar period: Major period
5 of 5 pts
Not supported by testingPeer-reviewed testing of North American freshwater fisheries found no significant relationship between solunar values, lunar phase or lunar illumination and catch rates (SN Applied Sciences, 2023) — air temperature predicted catch better than any solunar table tested. It is shown because anglers expect it, and it is shown separately so you can discount it. The owner reviewed this evidence and demoted its weight accordingly.
Barometric pressure: Stable
9.5 of 10 pts
Modeled flat — no change from this fish's baseline
ContestedThe barometric effect is real to most anglers but small and contested in the literature — several of the species studies cited in this model report null results — so it carries one of the smallest weights here.
Wind: Moderate (10-20 mph)
9.6 of 10 pts
Modeled about 10% above this fish's baseline
Moderately supportedWind stacks forage on windward structure, but both the size and the direction of the effect depend on the species and the water, so it carries a modest weight.
Then the whole score is scaled
Season: Fall — ×1.00 (100% of the ungated score)
How catchable Largemouth Bass are at this point in the year. This scales the whole score rather than competing with the factors above — a fish that is dormant this time of year cannot score well no matter how good the hour looks.
Weather front: No clear front — ×1.00 (100% of the ungated score)
A multi-hour frontal pattern read from the day's forecast trajectory. No front is classified today, so this changes nothing and the single-reading pressure factor above does its normal job.
Those five factors add up to 84.4 of 100 points, and the two multipliers above take that to 84. The weights are tuning constants — solunar's was demoted after peer-reviewed testing found no predictive effect (#456), and the rest remain under owner review — shown here rather than hidden so you can weigh them against your own judgement.
What this score does not know
- Water clarity. We have no source for it and do not estimate it.
- Measured water temperature. The figure in the breakdown is a model over forecast air temperature, not a reading from a buoy or a probe.
- Baitfish and forage activity.
- How much fishing pressure this water has had.
- Where the fish actually are. Depth bands are the species' published seasonal ranges, not an observation of this lake.
- What anyone actually caught. No catch reports feed this score.
Conditions read from the National Weather Service as of Oct 2, 2026 at 6:10 PM CDT. Solunar periods and sun/moon times are computed, not fetched.
When best caught
It's currently fall. Largemouth Bass typically hold 5-15 ft deep this time of year — at an estimated 65.1°F, this looks like a slower time of year to target them, since water temp is outside their optimal range.
Current depth
5-15 ft
This is the seasonal depth band from the species model — relative to this species' typical behavior, not this lake's actual structure. True depth relative to this lake's bottom contours needs lake bathymetry (tracked in issue #175).
Today's solunar periods
- Major: 5:32 AM–7:32 AM
- Minor: 2:06 PM–3:06 PM
- Major: 6:04 PM–8:04 PM
- Minor: 11:03 PM–12:03 AM
Best times
When do largemouth bass feed during the day?
Largemouth Bass feed most actively at Dawn and Dusk, when activity runs about 21% above the daily average across all four light windows.
- Dawn1.30x
Boosts feeding activity by about 30%.
- Daytime0.70x
Suppresses feeding activity by about 30%.
- Dusk1.30x
Boosts feeding activity by about 30%.
- Night1.00x
Has no measurable effect on feeding activity.
Hour by hour
Hourly bite forecast
| Hour | Bite score | Rating | Light | Wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 PM | 71 | Good | Day | 10 mph SE |
| 7 PM | 84 | Excellent | Dusk | 10 mph SE |
| 8 PM | 84 | Excellent | Dusk | 10 mph SE |
| 9 PM | 74 | Good | Night | 10 mph S |
| 10 PM | 74 | Good | Night | 10 mph S |
| 11 PM | 75 | Good | Night | 10 mph S |
Where to find Largemouth Bass right now
Typical Fall depth: 5-15 ft
Largemouth Bass feed most actively at Dawn and Dusk, when activity runs about 21% above the daily average across all four light windows.
No depth survey or measurement is on record for Keith Sebelius Lake, so these bands are the species' published seasonal ranges rather than a reading of this water.
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FAQ
Common questions
Are there Largemouth Bass in Keith Sebelius Lake?
A state fisheries survey records Largemouth Bass in Keith Sebelius Lake.
When do Largemouth Bass bite at Keith Sebelius Lake?
Largemouth Bass feed most actively at Dawn and Dusk, when activity runs about 21% above the daily average across all four light windows. Today's report above scores every hour of the local day against live weather for Keith Sebelius Lake, and shows what each input contributed alongside how well the evidence supports it.
How deep should you fish for Largemouth Bass at Keith Sebelius Lake?
Typical Largemouth Bass depth by season: Pre-Spawn 5-12 ft, Spawn 2-8 ft, Post-Spawn 5-15 ft, Summer 8-20 ft, Fall 5-15 ft, Winter 10-20 ft. These bands come from published fisheries data for the species, not from a survey of Keith Sebelius Lake itself.